Earlier today I was doing some considerations.. and thinking..
The world’s daily oil consumption is approx. 85 million barrels.. (a day !)
By the end of this year, the world’s total oil consumption will be approx. 31,025,000,000 barrels (31 Billion, 25 Million).
With an average yearly consumption growth rate of 7% (which is an average of the current values, ranging from 5% of G20 nations to 8.5% of China) , next year (end 2012) the world’s oil consumption will be approx. 33 Billion 200 Million barrels.
Keeping the growth rate steady, year on year, by 2015 the world will need approx. 40 Billion 667 Million barrels a year. And by 2020, the world will consume approx. 57 Billion 38 Million barrels a year (you may do the math yourself, it’s very easy).
So with a 7% yearly growth rate, in just 10 years the planet will need almost twice as much oil as it needs today…. In just 10 years (!) Do you think all the oil wells around the world, most of which have already peaked, will be able in 10 years time to supply twice as much as what they provide today? Personally, I don’t think so.
With such big numbers at stake, it’s easy to see that in the next 3 to 5 years, supply will struggle to cope with demand. As a consequence, gasoline price will rise (actually, it is already rising, and fast). Therefore, it will be more and more expensive to use cars, to fly, to warm our houses…